As the weekend rolls around, nearly all of the boys and girls teams across Massachusetts have played 10 or more games, meaning the 2015-16 regular season is roughly at its halfway point, if not beyond it.
Across the various divisions, both boys and girls, 161 out of 289 teams are at or above .500, or 55.7 percent. That means that if the season were to end today, well over half the teams across the state would be playing in their respective sectional tournaments, plus a few others thanks to automatic qualifiers, the Sullivan rule, etc.
The 161 total teams is right on pace with last season's 172 qualifiers, which again included several automatic qualifiers and Sullivan rule entrants. An example of an AQ would be the Brockton boys team, which despite a record of 5-11-4, won its conference (the Big 3) and earned a spot in the Div. 1 South field (they were seeded 16th and lost to No. 1 Xaverian after they lost a Super 8 play-in game, 6-1).
An example of the Sullivan rule would be Bishop Stang's qualification in the boys' Div. 3 South. The Spartans play in the Eastern Athletic Conference, a five-team league with three Div. 2 teams (Coyle & Cassidy, Martha's Vineyard and Bishop Feehan) and two Div. 3 teams (Bishop Stang and Somerset-Berkley). The Spartans finished 7-10-3 overall, but had a 5-5-1 record against Div. 3 opponents. The .500 record against Div. 3 competition enabled Bishop Stang to qualify for the postseason, as a 22-seed. They made their stay count, upsetting No. 11 Sacred Heart and No. 6 Old Rochester before losing to eventual South runner-up, No. 3 Hanover, in the quarterfinals, 2-1 in a shootout.
With that in mind, just because your favorite team might have a record below .500, that doesn't mean the season is lost. By checking out your team's schedule on our website, click on each individual opponent to see which division they are in. For fans of Div. 2 teams or lower, throw games against Div. 1 teams out the window; if you're at .500 or better against competition of an equal or lesser division, your team would be in the post-season if it began today (the overall record would count for seeding purposes in the postseason, however).
There's then the matter of the Super 8. The Super 8, established in 1991, does not take the best eight teams in the state based on their records. Rather, the Super 8 will look into peripheral measures. Records obviously matter, but so do metrics such as strength of schedule, and Ratings Percentage Index, or RPI. As explained last week, RPI is calculated using 25 percent of your own win percentage, 21 percent of your opponents' win percentage, and 54 percent of your opponents' opponents win percentage.
Catholic Conference schools tend to have the highest RPI's, even those having down years. For example, even though Catholic Memorial and Xaverian are currently below .500, their RPI's are relatively strong compared to schools with better records because of their competition: they face BC High, Malden Catholic and St. John's Prep twice each.
Which isn't to say non-Catholic Conference parochial schools or public schools can't have strong RPI's and qualify for the Super 8. After all, there's only five teams in the Catholic Conference; that means that even if in some abnormality all five teams were to qualify (pretty much impossible), there would still be five spots left.
Going strictly by RPI, the top 10 teams in Div. 1, and thus your Super 8 field if the season ended today, would be as follows:
1. BC High (9-0-2; RPI of .666)
2. Austin Prep (8-1-1; .650)
3. St. Mary's Lynn (11-1-0; .649)
4. Malden Catholic (7-1-2; .643)
5. Pope Francis (8-1-2; .623)
6. Winchester (9-1-1; .622)
7. St. John's Prep (7-1-2; .621)
8. Braintree (9-0-2; .610)
9. Burlington (7-1-2; .598)
10. Arlington (7-1-2; .593)
St. John's Prep vs. Arlington and Braintree vs. Burlington would be your play-in games; the losers would return to their respective Div. 1 sectional brackets.
If those were the 10 teams selected, the conference breakdown would be as follows:
Catholic Conference-3 teams (BC, MC, SJP)
Middlesex League-3 teams (Winchester, Burlington, Arlington)
Catholic Central-2 teams (Austin Prep, St. Mary's)
Catholic West-1 team (Pope Francis)
Bay State Conference-1 team (Braintree)
Could four public schools make the field? Last year, three publics made it (Franklin, Burlington, Woburn); it happened as recently as 2011, when Weymouth, Hingham, Needham and Woburn all qualified.
Only two public schools have ever won the Super 8 title: Reading (2008) and Hingham (2010). Three others have played in the championship game: Medford (way back, in 1993); Weymouth (2007) and Burlington (2009).
Using My Hockey Live's RPI, the next five teams in line in terms of RPI are as follows:
11. Archbishop Williams Bishops (6-2-2; .592)
12. Arlington Catholic Cougars (4-2-4; .590)
13. Central Catholic Raiders (7-4-2; .579)
14. Walpole Rebels (9-1-3; .578)
15. Framingham Flyers (7-1-4; .576)
Archies and AC are in the Catholic Central, Central is in the DCL/MVC1, and Walpole and Framingham are in the Bay State Conference.
The Bay State Conference will be very interesting to watch play out; Braintree, currently in the pole position, still faces Framingham once more (they tied 2-2 on Jan. 6) and Walpole, as well as a nonleague game with St. John's Prep. Framingham will also face St. John's Prep, in addition to Burlington, and also must still play Walpole. As for the Rebels, who play in the Herget Division (Framingham and Braintree are in the Carey), does not have any marquee non-conference games left on its slate. They will likely have to beat both the Flyers and the Wamps to have a shot at the Super 8.
The Middlesex League figures to have at least two teams in the Super 8 field. Burlington has plenty of tests left, beginning tomorrow with a game at Arlington; they also have that Framingham game, a game at Arlington Catholic, and a game with Reading and Woburn, who are 16th and 19th in RPI, respectively. The Red Devils tied Reading earlier in the year, and lost to Winchester.
Winchester and Arlington are in the Middlesex's Freedom Division, while Burlington is in the Liberty. The Sachems tied Woburn, lost to BC High, and beat Reading and Arlington; they have another game with Woburn, Arlington and Reading on their schedule. As for the Spy Ponders, they, too, will face Reading, Woburn and Winchester again.
The Catholic Central league still has all sorts to figure out as well; Austin Prep, Arlington Catholic and Archies all have the benefit of playing in the Buddy Ferreira Classic in Falmouth in February, where they could all face one another again, not to mention BC High or Reading. And that's before we get into other public powers not quite in the Super 8 discussion, but still formidable opponents in Hingham, Duxbury and Falmouth.
Hingham, the defending Div. 1 state champions, still has a punchers chance at the Super 8 itself, thanks to its No. 8 strength of schedule. The Harbormen, an independent, still have Central Catholic, Winchester, Pope Francis, the Ferreira Classic, Arlington and St. Mary's Lynn on its schedule. They have losses to Malden Catholic, St. Mary's Lynn, SJP and Reading, however, in addition to a tie against Framingham.
We're roughly 60 days away from Championship Sunday at the TD Garden, and there's oh so much more to play out between now and then. As always, it's great to be a high school hockey fan in Massachusetts.